TRIO Stream 2: Modelling & Monitoring

Understanding the factors that influence current and future requirements for blood components is essential to ensure long-term sufficiency of this critical resource. Identified drivers of changing requirements include population demographic trends such as ageing and immigration with their effects on type and numbers of clinical conditions requiring transfusion support, and evolving clinical practice including the emergence of novel pharmaceuticals.

Current understanding of transfusion practice and existing supply planning tools are insufficiently detailed to integrate these drivers. Mapping emerging trends onto current practice patterns, including the demographics of transfusion recipients and the clinical indications for transfusion will provide more robust forecasting of future needs, responsive  to anticipated demographic or technological shifts, and so assist in ensuring future sufficiency.

Epidemiological modelling is a method of combining evidence from observational epidemiology and clinical trials to assist in clinical and health policy decision-making. It can provide a mathematical framework for drawing together information on demographic trends and evolving clinical practice and relating these to demand for and utilisation of health services.

This project will apply data, including data from Stream One and data held by the partners, to identify relationships between patient characteristics and use of transfusions. This information will then be incorporated into population models of demographic and clinical trends, which will allow us to investigate the impact of clinical and demographic trends on transfusion needs by projecting transfusion under different clinical and demographic scenarios. 
  
Work commences in this stream in January 2011.

If you would like more information or are interested in the participating in the Transfusion Research: Improving Outcomes Project please click here